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Jan
19
By 24/7 / www.supplychain247.com / January 19th, 2018


DHL Global Trade Barometer derives predictions for global trade by evaluating large amounts of logistics data with the help of Artificial Intelligence.

DHL has introduced a new and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.

Since global trade fuels the world economy, the DHL Global Trade Barometer not only provides an outlook on future trade but also on the prospects for the global economy.

The indicator has been developed in cooperation between DHL and Accenture and will be published quarterly.

“As the world’s leading logistics provider, DHL has both, a deep understanding of the driving forces behind global trade volumes and the industry expertise to analyze and interpret market data. Our network, knowledge, and experience uniquely position us to understand global supply chains in order to derive a global trade outlook,” said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight.

Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight

“Our network, knowledge, and experience uniquely position us to understand global supply chains in order to derive a global trade outlook”Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight

“The DHL Global Trade Barometer shows impressively how digitalization – with the use of Big Data and Predictive Analytics – opens up entirely new opportunities that we can use for the benefit of our customers.”

Accenture will provide data modeling and predictive analytics to forecast future trade trends for DHL. DHL will receive one unified view of the insights which will give them a stronger understanding of current and future state of global trade logistics for its customers.

Detailed Bottom-Up Data Modeling

The DHL Global Trade Barometer is based on import and export data for a number of intermediate and early-cycle commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production, e.g. brand labels for clothes, bumpers for cars or touch screens for mobile devices.

Sources for the index are aggregated market data from air and containerized ocean freight in seven countries, which account for more than 75 percent of world trade.

Using artificial intelligence and various statistical methods this data is compressed to a single index value, which is published on a global level and individually for the seven countries evaluated.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer index represents the weighted average of the current growth and the upcoming two months of global trade. An index value above 50 indicates a positive development; values below 50 point to a decline in world trade.

Tests with historical data have revealed a high correlation between the DHL Global Trade Barometer and real containerized trade, providing a three-month forward-looking estimate.

January Index Points to Continued Moderate Growth in Global Trade

The DHL Global Trade Barometer for January 2018 indicates that global trade will continue to grow within the next three months. On its initial release, the index scored 64, which is slightly below the values calculated for previous months.

That means that world trade is still considered to be in an expansive mode, but growth loses momentum. The decline is due to weakening prospects for Chinese and Japanese trade, which is only partially offset by improved prospects for India, South Korea, and Great Britain.

In addition to the findings on world trade in general, the DHL Global Trade Barometer provides deep insights into specific issues, e.g. the main macroeconomic factors that are affecting trade trends or the countries and regions that are driving global trade.

By breaking down the global supply chain, volume trends within industry sectors could be identified, pointing to outperforming and declining sectors.

The insights from the DHL Global Trade Barometer will help DHL customers to optimize their business processes, for example providing guidance for investment and supply chain decisions.

Moreover, DHL itself will leverage the indicator to fine-tune its own resource planning for its international logistics operations. Due to the high quality of the data, the company believes that the DHL Global Trade Barometer has a high significance also beyond logistics.

Since it is an indicator of future trade and economic growth worldwide, the index could be integrated into forecast models by banks, associations or economic research institutes.

“In a world characterized by volatility and uncertainty, we are contributing to greater transparency and predictability – for the benefit of our customers, our business, and society,” Tim Scharwath said.

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Jan
18
FedEx Service Disruption
18 January 2018 12:10 PM
Source: FedEx / www.fedex.com / January 18th, 2018

FedEx Express experienced flight and sort disruptions at the Memphis and Indianapolis hubs last night due to the continuing effects of winter storms, including extremely low temperatures. Potential delays are possible for package deliveries across the U.S. with a delivery commitment of January 18, 2018. Our top priority is the safety and well-being of our team members, as well as providing the highest level of service to our customers. Please continue to check fedex.com for updates.

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Jan
18
Source: UPS / www.ups.com / January 18th, 2018

Severe winter weather is impacting areas of Alabama and North Carolina. There will be no pickups or deliveries today in the affected areas.

We will work to ensure the safety of our employees while minimizing effects on service. Contingency plans are in place to help ensure that shipments arrive at their final destinations as quickly as conditions permit.  Visit here for the latest information on service delays, including ZIP codes where no pickups or deliveries are being made today.

Zip Codes Affected (Download)
North Carolina (22)
Alabama (42)

Mudslides will continue impacting service in areas of California this week. There will be no pickups or deliveries in the impacted areas.

We will work to ensure the safety of our employees while minimizing effects on service. Contingency plans are in place to help ensure that shipments arrive at their final destinations as quickly as conditions permit.

Zip Codes Affected (Download)
California (2)

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Jan
17

By John Schulz / www.logisticsmgmt.com / January 15th, 2018


Less-than-truckload (LTL)
 shippers are facing what top trucking executives are calling a “new era” in LTL pricing because of a combination of pent-up demand, surging e-commerce deliveries and a tightening capacity due to increased government regulations and a shortage of qualified drives.

That means if you are an LTL shipper, you should brace for some of the steepest rate increases in a decade because of rising costs and sharply higher demand.

That’s the word from two veteran sages of the industry, New England Motor Freight Chairman Myron P. “Mike” Shevell and Darren Hawkins, who assumed the role of president and COO of YRC Worldwide on Jan. 1. YRC CEO James Welch is retiring July 31.

In a dire warning for LTL shippers, both say drastically higher rates are on the way. Core pricing (net of fuel surcharges) rose on average about 4 percent last year, according to analysts’ estimates and carriers’ financial reports. This year, shippers should brace for at least that much an increase, and perhaps much more.

“Our bigger shippers are cognizant of the environment,” Hawkins told LM. “The majority of our contracts are annual with a lot due the first of the year. Our larger customers are well aware of the capacity crunch.”

Hawkins oversees both the long-haul business of YRC Freight and shorter-haul regional and interregional networks of New Penn, Holland and Reddaway. Combined, they account for about $5 billion of the $36 billion LTL sector.

“I’ve been in this business for 60 years and the only time I’ve seen capacity shortages worse was during World War II,” says Shevell, chairman of the Shevell Group, parent of New England Motor Freight (NEMF), the leading LTL carrier in the Northeast. NEMF is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year, one of only a handful of trucking companies to reach that mark, and Shevell talks like he’d like to be around another 100 or so.

“Rates have to go up and not just 2-3-4-5 percent a year,” he said. “They have to go way up so we can move freight that has to move. Especially as the economy gets better, capacity is going to get even worse.

“Everybody (shippers) better prepare themselves because it’s a new era of doing business,” he told LM. “You’re not going to be able to beat up their trucking companies any longer because you won’t be able to have any trucks.”

And Shevell emphasized that new reality is not some forecast for 5-10 years down the road. “It’s reality,” he said. “It’s here now.” 

Spot rates hit an all-time record the last week of December, according to the closely watched DAT Trendlines. Load-to-truck ratios surged, setting a new all-time record-high of 12.2 loads per truck for vans, DAT said.

“Everybody follows those DAT Trendlines,” YRC’s Hawkins explained. “They’re telling us there’s a capacity crunch and we need to work together to make sure supply chains stay healthy. That means we have to make sure our resources are taken care of and we are compensated fairly.”

Shevell said LTL carriers face “many challenges ahead” to make a decent profit, and shippers have to realize that the pricing power has shifted toward the carries.

“People were using their power to beat up carriers with crazy pricing bids and in my opinion, those days are over,” he said. “Changes are coming fast and furious.”

Trucks that used to cost $60,000 just 10 years ago now cost north of $125,000 because of sophisticated electronics designed to reduce carbon emissions.

“The government forced this new equipment on us but the cost of running this equipment is horrendous,” Shevell said. “They’ve made it so complicated that if a truck breaks down, you used to send out a mechanic with a tool box. Now you send a tow truck for $1,000. And you have to dispatch another truck costing $120,000 to pull the load.”

Stricter enforcement of drivers hour of service is expected to decrease carrier productivity in the 4-6 percent range as cheaters will be forced to cut down the number of hours they drive.

“Drivers are going to lose pay,” Shevell predicted. “About 30 percent of drivers are ready to retire. You had a shortage to begin with, and then you have people retiring”

Shevell says the electronic logging devices cost his companies “several million to install and $500,000 annually” to maintain it.

“I’m a huge proponent of safety, but you have to get paid for it,” he said. “You don’t go into Wal-Mart and say I’m taking this TV home and I’m not paying for it. That’s what these companies want. It’s unbelievable.”

The best carriers are telling their customers to brace for this new era of pricing by collaboratively working together to create efficiencies where there once was bottlenecks.

Shevell’s advice for shippers is to “work with your carriers” to take costs out of their networks, reduce waiting time at docks and other facilities and realize truckers have to make a profit as well.

“Ninety-nine percent of our industry is just making pennies on the dollar as far as profits. “We are making huge investments in trucks, drivers and facilities.”

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Jan
16
FedEx Service Alert
16 January 2018 10:58 AM
Source: FedEx / www.fedex.com / January 16th, 2018

FedEx Express experienced flight and sort disruptions at the Memphis and Indianapolis hubs last night due to severe winter weather. Potential delays are possible for package deliveries across the U.S. with a delivery commitment of January 16, 2018. FedEx is committed to provide service to the best of our ability. Please continue to check fedex.com for updates.

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